The countdown to the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 has begun, and political excitement is peaking. A recent Times Now–JVC opinion poll suggests that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)), is set for a comfortable majority.
According to the survey, the NDA could secure 136 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, crossing the halfway mark of 122 seats with ease. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan (MGB)—comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and Left parties—is projected to win 75 seats.
Party-Wise Seat Projection
| Political Party | 2020 Election | 2025 Opinion Poll | Gain / Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| BJP | 74 | 81 | +7 |
| JD(U) | 43 | 31 | -12 |
| RJD | 75 | 52 | -23 |
| Congress | 19 | 10 | -9 |
| Jan Suraaj Party | 0 | 2 | +2 |
| AIMIM | 5 | 3 | -2 |
| BSP | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Key Takeaways
- BJP Strengthens Its Position
- The BJP emerges as the biggest gainer, projected to rise from 74 to 81 seats.
- It also holds an edge in 17 additional constituencies, boosting its chances further.
- JD(U) Faces Decline
- Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) could fall sharply from 43 seats in 2020 to 31 seats in 2025.
- RJD & Congress Lose Ground
- Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD sees a major drop, slipping from 75 seats to 52.
- The Congress may shrink from 19 seats to just 10, raising questions about its impact in the INDIA bloc.
- New & Smaller Players
- Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party could open its account with 2 seats.
- The AIMIM is likely to reduce its tally from 5 to 3, while the BSP is expected to retain its lone seat.
The “Surprise Factor”
Political strategist JVC Sreeram described the poll results as “very surprising.”
He noted that if the Congress contests around 70 seats, the NDA’s seat share could climb to 150, as Congress’s weak performance would weaken the INDIA bloc further.
He suggested that the RJD may need to rethink its alliance strategy and reduce Congress’s share of seats to prevent additional losses.
Conclusion
The Times Now–JVC opinion poll paints a clear picture:
- The NDA is comfortably ahead, with the BJP leading the charge.
- The Mahagathbandhan faces significant losses, especially the RJD and Congress.
- Smaller players like Jan Suraaj Party could make a modest entry, but the overall contest remains NDA-dominated.
As Bihar heads into elections later in October–November 2025, these projections have set the stage for an intense campaign. However, whether these poll predictions translate into actual results will only be known once votes are cast and counted.
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